All posts by Kris Amundson

For the poll-obsessed

The Washington Post has a new feature called Behind the Numbers. Each day, the site shares some interesting new data mined from deep in the internals of a poll.

Today’s fascinating tidbit? Voters without landlines are breaking 2 to 1 for Obama. In 2004, these voters comprised roughly 7 percent of the electorate. This year, they may be as much as 15 percent of those who go to the polls.

Check the site every day at 5 p.m. for new updates.

The final tally

Last night, the snarky, disrespectful contestant lost, big time. The winner was the one who kept cool and stuck to a clear game plan.

I am talking, of course, about Project Runway.

Kenley, she of the 40s look and the snark, was eliminated early. Leanne, with her understated elegance and her absolute lack of personal drama, won–big time.

Hmmm. There seems to be a pattern emerging here.

Sabato: “Obama Over the Magic Number”

Throughout the election, UVa Professor Larry Sabato has maintained a “wait-and-see” attitude toward this election. The bottom-line numbers were close. It was still an election where anything could happen.

This week, the Crystal Ball has a different outlook: “With this issue, the Crystal Ball now has Obama over the magic number of 270 for the first time, with potentially many more electoral votes to be piled on top”

So let’s whoop and holler–for about five minutes. Then let’s get back to work. I can’t help noting, for example, that Sabato still has Virginia in the “undecided” column. We could do something about that.

If you don’t get enough political news

270 to Win is a new electoral map site that also includes great historical information. The site includes state voting trends and outlines statistical probabilities of each candidate winning in each state. And if you want to see what George Washington’s electoral win looked like, here’s your site.

Today, it shows that Obama has 73 possible winning combinations to get to 270 electoral votes. McCain has 39. So if you aren’t spending enough time over at Pollster.com or Fivethirtyeight.com, 270 to Win offers another way to waste time do productive research OK, hang out on the Internet.

To my fellow catastrophizers

Fess up. On Friday night, you wanted Our Guy to strike back. You wondered why he didn’t say, “As a matter of fact, John, I do understand.” You wanted him to smack somebody upside the head.

Or maybe that was just me.

But as the polls have come in and I’ve had a chance to look at the internals, I was the one who was smacked upside the head with this realization: These folks know what they’re doing.

For a lot of us (on both sides) the election is already over. The Twelve Apostles could come canvassing at my door for John McCain and I wouldn’t change my vote. So in that debate, Barack Obama didn’t have to talk to me.

He did need to talk to the undecided voters. Who loved the fact that he wasn’t mean. Who loved it when he said he agreed with his opponent. Who want a President, in other words, who acts Presidential.

It’s always satisfying to get off a real zinger in an argument. (This is a sin with which I am not unfamiliar.) But it is not worth it if you have to spend the next few days making amends.

It is clear to me that the people who had the foresight to devote extra primary resources to the Congressional districts that elected an uneven number of Convention delegates also had the foresight to know what they needed to do on Friday night.

And then they had a candidate with the discipline to do exactly what he needed to. Even when the Other Guy was calling him names. And even when most of us would have lost our temper–and maybe, along with it, the election.

Partying with the Queen

In our line of work, we get invited to lots of very nice events. But usually, they are populated by other politicos like us.

But last night, the “sparklies” were really glittery. Through a friend, a group of us wrangled an invitation to the premiere of “The Secret Life of Bees.” So there we were, partying with Dakota Fanning and Queen Latifah. (Before you ask, she looks gorgeous and the Jenny Craig thing seems to be working for her.)

As I described it to my Co-Blogger this morning, “Well, the main characters are all women, there’s kissing and crying, and nothing gets blown up.” His analysis: a decided Chick Flick.

But if you loved the book, you’ll love the movie. If you haven’t read the book, you’ll want to.

C-SPAN@WePo

I just got back from a C-SPAN Presidential debate at West Potomac High School. What an exciting event. Students had prepared for weeks. This morning, teams representing Sen. Obama and Sen. McCain debated before the entire senior class.

Then students visited other stations. There was a Democratic “spin room” (I was there) and a Republican “spin room” (and students were free to visit both). Students could register to vote at a table set up by the Fairfax County Registrar. The C-SPAN bus was parked outside.

Students were engaged and excited about the political process. Dozens signed up to volunteer for the candidate of their choice. (I told them, “We’re in the Democratic spin room and it is our job to encourage you to sign up for Sen. Obama. But I feel so strongly about the value of participation that I want to urge you to sign up for Sen. McCain, if that’s who you’re supporting. Just don’t sit on the sidelines in this election.”)

Oh, and in the mock election? Obama won with 82 percent of the vote.

When we had that little kerfuffle about a political rally on school grounds a few weeks ago, I said that there was a real place for school activities that inform and educate young voters. This day definitely did that. Congratulations to Cox for bringing the bus, and most of all to the students and teachers at West Potomac.

The Pat Summit Solution

On my wall, I have a quote from Pat Summit (the Tennessee women’s basketball coach) describing her theory of victory. “Here’s how I’m going to beat you,” she says. “I’m going to outwork you. That’s it.” And any team that plays Tennessee knows that’s usually what happens–they just flat get outworked on the court.

Now here is a photograph of the Obama headquarters in my district last Saturday. There is a line–out the door–of people waiting to get their canvas packages.

I have never seen people work this hard for any candidate. And, like Pat Summit, I believe all that hard work is going to pay off.